The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has issued a Monthly Labor Review article that provides information on the newest long-term national employment projections, which were released September 1, 2020.
In the Monthly Labor Review article, BLS states that employment growth is expected to slow, mainly because of an aging population and lower population growth.
BLS projects 0.4-percent annual growth in employment over the 2019–29 decade. This projected growth is slower than the growth that occurred over the 2009–19 decade, which was marked by faster recovery growth following the trough of the 2007–09 Great Recession.
The total economy will add about 6.0 million jobs, with employment reaching a level of 168.8 million in 2029. Various demographic trends, including an aging population, are expected to drive slow growth in the labor force and a lower labor force participation rate over the projections period.
These demographic trends, combined with slower growth in the civilian non-institutional population, will affect population and labor force, aggregate demand, industry output and employment, and occupational employment projections over the 2019–29 decade.
This article presents an overview of the 2019–29 projections. Highlights include the following:
- Labor force growth is projected to be slower (0.5-percent annual growth), in part, from an aging population and slower population growth among Hispanics.
- The labor force participation rate is projected to continue to decline from 63.1 percent in 2019 to 61.2 percent in 2029.
- Gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to continue to grow (1.8 percent annually), but at a slower rate than the historical pattern.
- Most employment gains over the 2019–29 period are expected to be in the service-providing sectors, led by strong growth in the healthcare and social assistance sector. The aging population will continue to create strong demand for industries and occupations that provide healthcare and related services.
Check out the highlights of the 2019–29 projections, including:
- the fastest growing occupations overall, the occupations expected to have the most new jobs,
- the fastest growing occupations that require a bachelor’s degree or more, and
- the fastest growing occupations that require some education.
See also the Occupational Outlook Handbook, which incorporates the projections.